Cohasset faces a looming return to the state’s 40B regulatory list as new projections show the town’s subsidized housing inventory could dip below the mandatory 10% threshold by the 2030 Census. Town Planner Cassandra Thayer presented a memo to the Affordable Housing Steering Committee on Tuesday detailing how anticipated residential growth will likely outpace the creation of new affordable units, leaving the town vulnerable to large-scale developments that can bypass local zoning laws.

According to Thayer’s analysis, the town currently has 3,477 year-round housing units. While upcoming projects like the 14-unit conversion at One Pleasant Street will temporarily boost the town’s Subsidized Housing Inventory (SHI) to 10.80% by late 2026, the long-term trend is less certain. If we estimate 20 new units per year, we will have an additional 80 units by 2030, totaling 3,557 units, Thayer explained. Our SHI percentage would drop to 9.86%, which is below the 10% threshold.

Chair Paul Kierce expressed surprise at the growth rate, noting that while the town has seen spikes during projects like Cook’s Estate, he had estimated a slower pace of roughly 12 units per year. Kierce emphasized the high stakes of maintaining the 10% status to avoid losing local control over housing density. This is important because small projects like Habitat for Humanity or the units on South Main Street really count, Kierce said. If we fall under 10%, we are at risk for 40B developments.

The committee is exploring creative ways to bridge the gap before the 2030 Census, including the certification of a Housing Production Plan to achieve "Safe Harbor" status. Member Fred Koed suggested that the 10% calculation might be improved by better identifying seasonal residences, which are excluded from the total housing count. A good source would be the Water Department because they have seasonal accounts where people shut off their water, Koed noted. I will find out the number of seasonal accounts from them.

Koed also provided a stark update on the Cohasset Housing Authority’s senior housing, which is currently struggling with a vacancy rate of nearly 27%. Out of 64 units in senior housing, 17 are currently unoccupied. Koed reported that new management from Scituate is systemizing the maintenance and application process to fill those roles more efficiently. We are moving maintenance tickets onto a computer system combined with Scituate, Koed said. There will be cross-training between Cohasset and Scituate employees to cover both locations.

In addition to managing existing units, the committee discussed potential new sites for development. While a property across from St. Anthony’s recently went into liquidation, stalling plans for three units there, the committee remains focused on the One Pleasant Street paperwork currently awaiting state approval. Kierce also touched upon the possibility of a 40R project behind the Music Circus area, though he acknowledged the difficulty of such a project. That would be a bigger 'war' than the new school building, Kierce remarked regarding the potential for neighborhood opposition. It’s a huge swath of land, but the neighborhood opposition would be significant.

Vice Chair Mary Hynes advocated for proactive public outreach at the upcoming Town Meeting to encourage private property owners to consider affordable housing conversions or donations. I just think some public outreach about the upcoming need is good, Hynes said. I am ready to work with Cassandra on the building inspector issues and the recommendations from the Housing Production Plan.

The committee discussed the possibility of offering financial incentives to residents who are willing to deed-restrict their properties. Kierce noted that the fastest way to gain credits is through deed-restricting existing dwellings, particularly if someone is downsizing and willing to accept an incentive. We want positive options to happen rather than just waiting for a developer to come in, Hynes added. The committee plans to prepare a brief presentation for Town Meeting to solicit ideas or property donations from the community to help secure the town's housing future.